Year-over-year comparisons continue to paint a confusing picture of the Houston real estate market — however, we can compare today’s market activity to pre-pandemic numbers for a more accurate sense of what we can expect this spring homebuying season.

According to the Houston Association of Realtors® February 2023 Market Update, home sales are down year over year — but up when compared to February 2019. Closings were down for the eleventh straight month, with only 5,723 homes sold compared to 7,430 in February 2022 (a 23% decrease). However, closings are up 7.2% compared to February 2019.

“For a true apples-to-apples comparison of the Houston housing market, you have to examine where we were before the pandemic, in 2019, and by that standard, we are in similar territory,” said HAR Chair Cathy Treviño. “The traditional year-over-year comparison shows a market slowdown but, even then, there are positive trends in the form of moderating prices and growing inventory that bode well for spring homebuying.”

A year ago, the average single-family home sold for $394,503, with prices hitting an all-time high several months later in May. However, home prices actually decreased for the first time since Spring 2020 last month. The average home cost $384,103 in February, which represents a 2.4% decrease year over year.

The report also shows that inventory has grown to a 2.6-month supply in Houston. That’s considerably lower than the amount seen in a balanced market, but it’s a 1.4-month increase from inventory levels seen in February 2022.