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Economists Battle Over the Fate of Houston Jobs

by James McClister

With oil prices falling so rapidly, will Houston be able to recreate the same success as it had in 2014?

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Houston’s 2014 was one for the books, as the city’s more than proficient job creators bolster the market with an additional 120,600 jobs, according to figures from RealtyNewsReport. However, the energy sector, as Houston’s economic vanguard, led the way for employment gains, which, with the falling price of oil, could mean significant losses in the new year.

Faced with the setbacks that come from crude falling to below $45 a barrel, Houston’s multifamily and office properties are at the greatest risk in 2015. Already, “dozens” of multifamily projects in the area have seen the axe, RNR reported, and plenty more are eyeing the chopping block.

During a builders convention in Las Vegas recently, David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, warned that builders, if allowed the opportunity, will continue seeking financing for building projects, noting that it “has to be the bankers who move away from the punch bowl.” According to RNR, lenders have already started shying away from multifamily developments.

Office Building Up, But Going Down

In regards to office construction, Houston is the nation’s current leader with 50 developments underway, which total upwards of 17 million square feet, according to CBRE Economic Advisers. However, while eager builders were busy preparing for another fruitful year, it’s possible they may have fallen into the realm of zealotry.

In the final quarter of 2014, nine office buildings broke ground, five of which are being built completely to spec, CBRE reported. With the price of oil falling the way it has and the way it’s expected to in the immediate future, the advisory group warned those buildings could ultimately remain empty, as buyers are unlikely to seek a building designed to foreign specifications.

As layoffs continue, expect energy companies to begin shedding a number of office spaces into the sublease market, which are likely to come with more competitive rental rates than newer developments.

Other property sectors in the city are expected fair rather well in 2015, according to RNR, which reported that single-family “will continue its healthy run.”

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