Texas Population Growth: Moderate to Booming

In the past half-century, Texas has worked as something of a magnet, attracting people from all corners of the globe to fill out its significant skilled labor stores, most recently it’s mining and logging sector, including oil and gas, which led growth in December, rising 11.56 percentage points from the same time a year prior, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

Currently at 26.9 million, the report estimates the state’s population could double by 2050. However, that number will largely depend on migration trends over the next few decades.

Running two separate scenarios, one that continues migration levels established in 2010 and the other, which assumes natural increases, researchers calculated population estimates that establish a wide proximity of growth.

Estimated and projected total population growth. Source: The Office of The State Demographer.

Factoring in migration, which also influences demographic makeup, in 2030, The State Demographer projects population to increase by more than 12 million. By 2050, population would reach 54,369,297 – considerably increasing the state’s pool of buyers and sellers, and substantial growth in younger age groups.

Projections are starkly different, however, when considering natural increases, limiting population increases to 3.8 million by 2030 and 4 million by 2050, bringing the overall projected population size to 31,246,355.

The reality is probably somewhere in the margin, but what’s more concerning is the affects population growth, or lack thereof, will have on the state’s demographics, most importantly age. Without a population capable of handling the workload and supporting social programs and industries largely draw on by the elderly, Texas could stagnate and stumble into economic dire straits.