Sales activity is the leading indicator of the direction a housing market is heading. Simply stated, the number of sales indicates the health of the housing market — just like the pulse rate of the heart. 

The COVID-19 pandemic clouded the perspective of where the housing market is today, though. The onset of the pandemic initially stalled house sales, but then ignited demand when the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage punctured below the 3% range. Since 2022, however, rising mortgage rates drove overall housing affordability down to a level not seen since the early 1980s.

How do we know when housing sales are back to normal?

The last normal year for the housing market was 2019 — the year prior to the pandemic. When housing sales numbers get back to 2019 monthly levels, then the market will be considered normal once again.

Total U.S. existing-home sales, as reported by the National Association of REALTORS®, are detailed in the graph below. Current 12-month sales in September totaled 4.06 million, down from 5.34 million for all of 2019. Note that U.S. existing-home sales were essentially flat in the past year and a half with no recovery in that period, nor any real change in the current trend. Thus, 12-month existing-homes sales as of September are down 24% compared to 2019.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

Existing-home sales for the month of September totaled 357,000, compared to 450,000 in September 2019 — a plunge of 20.7%. Median-home prices jumped from $271,500 to $415,200 — a gain of 52.9%. The massive price increase, when coupled with a doubling of mortgage rates, completely explains today’s housing affordability crisis.

Houston single-family housing sales are detailed in the graph below, with total sales in the prior 12-months on the right axis and median price on the left. Houston single-family housing sales are back to normal compared to 2019 levels. October 12-month sales totaled 88,584, 1.8% greater than the 86,999 sales level for all of 2019. Houston’s October single-family sales of 7,419 were up 3.2% versus the October 2019 sales level of 7,187.

Source: Houston Association of REALTORS®

While the U.S. housing market struggles to return to normal levels, Houston home sales have trended near or greater than normal for the past two years, thanks to a strong economy. Though recent monthly home prices are off slightly, the Houston single-family median price jumped 37.5% from October 2019 to October 2025.

Still waiting for a normal Houston housing market? That has already happened.

A look ahead

Nationwide, 30-year conventional mortgage rates dipped from an average 6.43% in October 2024 to 6.25% percent this October per Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting the Fed Funds rate three times in the past 13 months, conventional mortgage rates remain sticky, in the lower 6% range. Unfortunately, 30-year mortgage rates are forecast to average from 6% to 6.4% in 2026, as forecast by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Lower mortgage rates are expected to give only slight relief to home buyers and sellers in 2026. Fannie Mae projects existing-home sales of just 4.45 million; the MBA, 4.35 million, up slightly from 4.1 million in 2025 — both far short of the 5.34 million notched in 2019. Neither predicts a change in median home prices in 2026.

When you hear the weatherman say there is “little change in the forecast,” that also describes the outlook for home sales in 2026.

Ted Jones is chief economist of the Houston Association of REALTORS®.